Tariff Shock Tests Homebuilders M&A Pipeline, Capital Access

John McManus -

When global markets flinched after President Trump’s April 2 announcement of sweeping new tariffs, the tremor hit mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and capital flows with force. IPOs paused. Debt deals stalled.

A Reuters report notes that Klarna and Chime shelved public offerings, and eToro postponed its Wall Street roadshow. One London-based private equity firm backed away from a European tech acquisition in real-time.

In homebuilding, which often mirrors wider market behavior with a lag, the worry has been whether this tariff-induced volatility would freeze a sector that has, against many odds, become one of the most active in M&A since 2022.

Not so fast, says Tony Avila.

We’re currently in process on six M&A transactions, and not one has retraded or delayed due to tariffs," says Avila, founder and CEO of Builder Advisor Group, in an exclusive interview. "We’re focused on buyers who think long-term—three years, 10 years. The noise is real, but the fundamentals haven’t changed."

In other words, even if the headlines scream chaos, the builders Avila advises are looking past the turbulence to the underlying math: demographics, demand, and housing scarcity.

Deals Stay on Track

That doesn’t mean the environment isn’t tricky. Some potential buyers are spooked.

A major public builder told me they were putting everything on hold for 90 days," Avila recounts. "They’re nervous. But that’s not the norm among serious long-view investors."

Avila invokes Warren Buffett:

Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

The deals his firm is working on? Steady.

Our buyers believe in the structural drivers. They’re not looking at just the next quarter."

Margins Feel the Pressure—But Not Much

So far, the material impact on homebuilder profitability is marginal.

We think the tariffs will hit builder margins by about 1% in 2025," Avila says. "That’s manageable. Panic will cost more than policy. Builders who start discounting will feel the pain. Those who stay disciplined will ride it out."

That discipline is also showing up in stock market behavior. Avila notes that he’s actively buying shares of public builders that are no longer on his firm’s restricted list.

We believe in the resilience of this sector. We’re putting money behind that."

Builder Advisor Group Goes Bigger in Capital Access

While some lenders and capital providers pull back, Avila and his team are pressing forward. They’re building out a new homebuilder finance platform with a specific focus: meet the market where traditional banks are retreating.

The expansion is personnel-first. Six professionals with deep experience at Flagstar Bank, one of the most active lenders in builder finance, have joined the team. Together, they bring project-based lending acumen in acquisition, development, and vertical construction across major U.S. markets.

  • John Brimberry, formerly a co-founder and national production head at Flagstar’s builder platform, now serves as Chief Lending Officer. His team includes:
  • Drew Szilagyi, who managed a $1.5B portfolio across the Eastern U.S.
  • Phil Trujillo, who built a $1B book across key Western metros.
  • Nathan Cichon, with experience in BTR lending, large syndications, and asset strategy.
  • Jerry Schillaci and Jim Freeman, veterans in underwriting and portfolio management.

The goal? To deploy $1 billion in capital over the next two years (on top of the $1 billion put in place in the past two years).

We're seeing a huge pipeline and increasing demand for our product," says Avila. "Builders need project-based lending. They need a capital partner that understands the business."

The group is targeting A, B, and C-level homebuilding and land development projects—those often overlooked by traditional lenders in today’s tighter regulatory climate.

Private Credit Rises as Bank Lending Contracts

Traditional bank financing has become both expensive and difficult to secure. Reserve requirements, oversight scrutiny, and exposure constraints are tightening access.

We’re seeing lines pulled, hard-money lenders under pressure, and a risk-off stance from many banks," Avila notes.

That vacuum is fueling the rise of private capital and credit funds like the one Builder Advisor Group is now scaling.

We’re not just stepping in to fill a gap," says Avila. "We’re building a permanent platform that can weather this cycle and the next."

Bottom Line: Noise Is Loud, but Fundamentals Still Rule

The wider M&A world may be pausing, recalibrating amid trade wars and rate noise. But in U.S. homebuilding, Builder Advisor Group is moving full steam ahead—with transactions closing and capital ready to deploy.

Long-term thinking is our north star," says Avila. "If you believe in the demographic drivers, if you understand the housing shortfall, then now isn’t the time to retreat. It’s the time to act."

That message is one many in homebuilding need to hear—especially with so much noise trying to drown it out.